Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 0.146798 0.173483 0.204727 0.244292 0.293456 0.353060 4.315884e-01
2025-08-31 0.113030 0.145214 0.186986 0.246164 0.329470 0.445099 6.223710e-01
2025-09-07 0.090909 0.125379 0.174288 0.250906 0.372059 0.563879 9.073664e-01
2025-09-14 0.074551 0.109468 0.163138 0.255441 0.418672 0.713616 1.336139e+00
2025-09-21 0.060311 0.093422 0.147967 0.249920 0.449826 0.859960 1.882881e+00
2025-09-28 0.045634 0.073496 0.121807 0.217978 0.422335 0.886897 2.222084e+00
2025-10-05 0.039276 0.066199 0.115785 0.222293 0.472382 1.121227 3.382746e+00
2025-10-12 0.034872 0.061425 0.113320 0.233669 0.547191 1.486194 5.581200e+00
2025-10-19 0.030810 0.056438 0.109266 0.240735 0.618768 1.924596 9.163335e+00
2025-10-26 0.027470 0.052179 0.105725 0.248314 0.700382 2.510400 1.564415e+01
2025-11-02 0.023935 0.046808 0.098429 0.243814 0.744714 3.031634 2.455930e+01
2025-11-09 0.020595 0.041232 0.089362 0.231325 0.756008 3.443944 3.584087e+01
2025-11-16 0.018467 0.038081 0.085785 0.235178 0.841366 4.485207 6.854630e+01
2025-11-23 0.016613 0.035212 0.082259 0.238266 0.932133 5.852256 1.403286e+02
2025-11-30 0.015111 0.032900 0.079671 0.243920 1.047064 7.864590 3.327398e+02
2025-12-07 0.013797 0.030801 0.077168 0.249225 1.173205 10.641068 9.133289e+02
2025-12-14 0.012382 0.028189 0.072551 0.244605 1.242688 13.286996 2.397635e+03
2025-12-21 0.010502 0.024070 0.062528 0.213984 1.116836 12.682100 3.121170e+03
2025-12-28 0.009730 0.022774 0.060917 0.218638 1.245432 17.324759 1.504794e+04
2026-01-04 0.009187 0.022003 0.060786 0.230165 1.450880 25.945510 2.382840e+05
2026-01-11 0.008608 0.021032 0.059778 0.237425 1.642891 37.659062 5.751639e+07
2026-01-18 0.008093 0.020156 0.058886 0.245152 1.864553 56.032184 NaN
2026-01-25 0.007448 0.018797 0.055979 0.240941 1.962633 72.758811 NaN